How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Ethan Cannon
Ethan Cannon

Tech strategist and writer with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and startup ecosystems.